Multimodal time-to-event prediction often requires integrating sensitive data distributed across multiple parties, making centralized model training impractical due to privacy constraints. At the same time, most existing multimodal survival models produce single deterministic predictions without indicating how confident the model is in its estimates, which can limit their reliability in real-world decision making. To address these challenges, we propose BVFLMSP, a Bayesian Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) framework for multimodal time-to-event analysis based on a Split Neural Network architecture. In BVFLMSP, each client independently models a specific data modality using a Bayesian neural network, while a central server aggregates intermediate representations to perform survival risk prediction. To enhance privacy, we integrate differential privacy mechanisms by perturbing client side representations before transmission, providing formal privacy guarantees against information leakage during federated training. We first evaluate our Bayesian multimodal survival model against widely used single modality survival baselines and the centralized multimodal baseline MultiSurv. Across multimodal settings, the proposed method shows consistent improvements in discrimination performance, with up to 0.02 higher C-index compared to MultiSurv. We then compare federated and centralized learning under varying privacy budgets across different modality combinations, highlighting the tradeoff between predictive performance and privacy. Experimental results show that BVFLMSP effectively includes multimodal data, improves survival prediction over existing baselines, and remains robust under strict privacy constraints while providing uncertainty estimates.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

The substitution effect happens when learning the stronger features insome neurons can substitute for learning these features in other neurons through updating the predictionhead.

Mobility impairment caused by limb loss, aging, stroke, and other movement deficiencies isasignificant challenge facedbymillions ofindividualsworldwide. Advancedassistivetechnologies,suchasprosthesesandorthoses,havethepotential to greatly improve the quality of life for such individuals. A critical component in the design of these technologies is the accurate forecasting of reference joint motion forimpaired limbs,whichishindered bythescarcity ofjointlocomotion data available for these patients.

The surprising discovery of the BYOL method shows the negative samples can be replaced by adding the prediction head to the network. It is mysterious why even when there exist trivial collapsed global optimal solutions, neural networks trained by (stochastic) gradient descent can still learn competitive representations.